Mechanical Sports Betting System

If you read any book about sports betting or any kind of article about sports betting, what will you learn? Bet the underdogs! Every book, website, tout, service, you name it, are always telling you to bet the dogs. If everyone is betting the dogs, are the odds for favourites too high?

European football leagues are starting soon and to prepare myself for them, I did a small study using the data from the last two seasons from Premier League, Bundesleague, Serie A and La Liga Primera.

Premier League

Dogs 760 / 542 / 0.71 / -21.8k

Fav. 760 / 728 / 0.96 / -3.2k

Bundesleague

Dogs 612 / 578 / 0.94 / -3.4k

Fav. 612 / 563 / 0.92 / -4.9k

Serie A

Dogs 760 / 551 / 0.73 / -20.9k

Fav. 760 / 717 / 0.94 / -4.3k

La Liga Premier

Dogs 760 / 748 / 0.98 / -1.2k

Fav. 760 / 704 / 0.93 / -5.6k

How do you read that table? Let’s take Premier League for example. In the past 2 seasons you have had 760 games. If you had played every dog, your total odds would have been 542 (btw, I am using the European style odds, 1.35 etc.), return 0.71 (542/760) and for a $100 bet on every dog, you would have lost $21800.

What is interesting is that playing the favourites is a much better tactic in general, IF(!) you play every game. Only in Spain, your best tactic is to play every dog and almost break even.

Well, nobody plays every game. That would be insane. The question now is: can we use some very simple methods to find an edge from either the dogs or the favourites? I know for a fact that you can find an edge using sophisticated probability models and shopping for the best odds BUT for this article we would like to find simple methods for the average punter, who likes to bet for fun and TV-games, and not just for profit.

How about playing only home dogs, home favourites, away dogs, away favourites?

Premier League Bundesleague Serie A La Liga Premier

home fav 0.98 0.91 0.94 0.93

home dogs 0.84 0.94 0.77 1.03

away fav 0.91 0.96 0.95 0.93

away dogs 0.66 0.94 0.71 0.97

home fav 1.55 0.98 0.91 0.90 0.92

away fav 1.55 0.85 0.95 0.95 0.92

Home dogs in La Liga, home favourites under 1.55 in Serie A and away favourites under 1.55 in Premier- and Bundesleague and Serie A would have been a winning bet. Other possible good bets were home favourites in general in Premier, away fav 1.55 1.02 0.95 0.95 0.96

away fav 1.55 0.89 0.99 0.99 0.96

So, in Premier League, play every home favourite and big away favourite, dogs in Bundesleague and big away favourites, big favourites in Serie A and dogs and big away favourites in Spain, and pick the highest odd possible, and you will be just fine!

In the future I will go through more powerful, mathematical methods for finding an overlay in sports betting.

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"Hands-Up-To-The-Sky" – Ricardo Kaka Biography

Kaka Biography – Introduction

I’m writing this Kaka biography a few weeks after the 2006/2007 Champions League final, a final ending with a happy result, 2-1 for the Brazilian’s team, AC Milan against England’s Liverpool.

I must say, as impressive as Filippo Inzaghi (who scored both AC Milan’s goals) was, my eyes were focused on the Brazilian Kaka throughout the entire match. His passes, his dribblings, his speed and his vision on the pitch were honey to my eyes.

I decided to write this Kaka biography not because the Brazilian needs it, but because I want you to find out who the real Ricardo Kaka is, how he rose up the ladders of his career before being a super star and what exactly does that «hands-up-to-the-sky» kaka celebration mean.

Kaka Biography – Early Career

After spending his early days at different youth clubs around his home town of Brasilia and Sao Paulo, Kaka was eventually offered a professional contract at a very tender age: seventeen.

Since Kaka played great soccer for Sao Paulo’s youth teams, the reserve team and the Brazilian U-17 national squad, he immediately attracted the eyes of several European clubs, the one coming forward first being Turkish side Gaziantepspor.

Sao Paulo agreed to sell Kaka, for a sum of $1.5m, a sum that, if you think of the player’s market value now, would seem like peanuts. Still, the sum was quite big for the Turkish side, especially for a 17-year old footballer, Kaka’s young age giving them no guarantees that he will turn out to play great soccer regularly on professional level.

Kaka Biography – Swimming Pool Incident Sao Paulo FC

In his first season as a professional player for Sao Paulo, Kaka didn’t play for the Brazilian team, but he used this time to accommodate himself with his new colleagues and the hardships of professional soccer in Brazil.

He was probably going to get his debut that season still, but an unfortunate swimming pool incident almost ended his career as a footballer, Kaka fracturing his spine in September 2000. Not only did he risk his future, but this fracture almost cost him his life and he was in real danger of being paralyzed for the rest of his life.

Miraculously, Kaka made a full recovery and came back to training after his full strength came back to him. From that day forward, Kaka found faith in God and some of his profits as a professional footballer always go to the Church, as a small gesture of thanking God for saving his life and his career. The famous Kaka celebration, after he scores a goal, is related to that incident, as each time, he thanks God for allowing him to play soccer and be there on the pitch.

Kaka Biography – Attracting the European Giants

After fully recovering from his horrible fracture, Kaka was finally given a chance to play for Sao Paulo, in January 2001 and he didn’t disappoint, scoring no less than 12 goals in 27 appearances that season. This guaranteed him a solid first team place for the 2001-2002 season, in which he scored another 10 goals in 22 matches and whenever a young Brazilian soccer player performs that well, he’s bound to get a few calls from some major European clubs.

One of these clubs would be AC Milan, one of Italy’s most important teams and Kaka signed without blinking, eager to start a European career.

You probably know the story from here. Kaka is currently in his fourth season with Milan, whom he won the Serie A championship with once, the Italian Super Cup once, and the UEFA Champions League a few weeks ago (he also played another Champions League final in the 2004-2005 season, but lost it to Liverpool in what is considered one of the most beautiful finals of the tournament). He became an indispensable player for AC Milan but also for Brazil.

As a Brazil soccer player, Kaka scored 31 goals in 52 matches so far and gave out numerous perfect assists in his role as an attacking midfielder. Having the young midfielder in the squad, Brazil football became even more technical and quick (if that was even possible) and they’re considered amongst the main favorites for the following international tournaments.

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