Mechanical Sports Betting System

If you read any book about sports betting or any kind of article about sports betting, what will you learn? Bet the underdogs! Every book, website, tout, service, you name it, are always telling you to bet the dogs. If everyone is betting the dogs, are the odds for favourites too high?

European football leagues are starting soon and to prepare myself for them, I did a small study using the data from the last two seasons from Premier League, Bundesleague, Serie A and La Liga Primera.

Premier League

Dogs 760 / 542 / 0.71 / -21.8k

Fav. 760 / 728 / 0.96 / -3.2k

Bundesleague

Dogs 612 / 578 / 0.94 / -3.4k

Fav. 612 / 563 / 0.92 / -4.9k

Serie A

Dogs 760 / 551 / 0.73 / -20.9k

Fav. 760 / 717 / 0.94 / -4.3k

La Liga Premier

Dogs 760 / 748 / 0.98 / -1.2k

Fav. 760 / 704 / 0.93 / -5.6k

How do you read that table? Let’s take Premier League for example. In the past 2 seasons you have had 760 games. If you had played every dog, your total odds would have been 542 (btw, I am using the European style odds, 1.35 etc.), return 0.71 (542/760) and for a $100 bet on every dog, you would have lost $21800.

What is interesting is that playing the favourites is a much better tactic in general, IF(!) you play every game. Only in Spain, your best tactic is to play every dog and almost break even.

Well, nobody plays every game. That would be insane. The question now is: can we use some very simple methods to find an edge from either the dogs or the favourites? I know for a fact that you can find an edge using sophisticated probability models and shopping for the best odds BUT for this article we would like to find simple methods for the average punter, who likes to bet for fun and TV-games, and not just for profit.

How about playing only home dogs, home favourites, away dogs, away favourites?

Premier League Bundesleague Serie A La Liga Premier

home fav 0.98 0.91 0.94 0.93

home dogs 0.84 0.94 0.77 1.03

away fav 0.91 0.96 0.95 0.93

away dogs 0.66 0.94 0.71 0.97

home fav 1.55 0.98 0.91 0.90 0.92

away fav 1.55 0.85 0.95 0.95 0.92

Home dogs in La Liga, home favourites under 1.55 in Serie A and away favourites under 1.55 in Premier- and Bundesleague and Serie A would have been a winning bet. Other possible good bets were home favourites in general in Premier, away fav 1.55 1.02 0.95 0.95 0.96

away fav 1.55 0.89 0.99 0.99 0.96

So, in Premier League, play every home favourite and big away favourite, dogs in Bundesleague and big away favourites, big favourites in Serie A and dogs and big away favourites in Spain, and pick the highest odd possible, and you will be just fine!

In the future I will go through more powerful, mathematical methods for finding an overlay in sports betting.

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Golden Rules for Successful Soccer Betting

Whenever an interested sports fan researches the topic of online betting or game predictions, he will come across an extensive array of soccer betting tips and tricks, tables, suggestions, previews and odds alongside with many other valuable pieces of information. In an attempt to help all of those football fans and fanatics who feel like they are struggling with online betting, or even those who are barely getting started now, here are some of the insights and basic guidelines of this not so complicated industry, so that you too can start earning money from betting like the many other already enjoying this opportunity.

Firstly, one of the most interesting issues involves the financial aspect and especially the money invested in betting and which is the proper way to bet for the best earnings to be collected. A correct money management is the key towards being a successful soccer betting expert. One of the tactics recommended by the best websites in the world of betting predictions football has inspired, is to split the amount of money available for betting into smaller portions, approximately 10-15 parts, and bet these smaller shares instead. This technique has turned into a general rule for all the large betting pros and is becoming a sure way to bet and win.

Secondly, and what many consider to be the most important rule, choose a great and reliable website that offers a constant flow of soccer betting tips and predictions about all the games you are interested in. With new predictions being posted every single day, you can find out the most recent news or odds in real time, so that your betting chances are at their maximum. Whether you want to find out the odds for the UEFA Champions League or know the Europa League preview, you can learn anything from specialized online platforms for betting tips. All of the professional punters take their predictions from experts in the field, so why shouldn’t you?

Thirdly, forget all of the preconceptions linked to sports betting, if you want to have a truly successful and profitable betting experience. What people generally perceive as betting advice sources, like sports news and simple rumors are nothing but small guidelines that may or may not turn into reality. The real source of accurate football predictions can only come from a more statistical research into the evolution of the teams and the composition of their players. But if statistics and results seem hard to interpret or figure out, then there is always the saving option of reading those stats in their interpreted source on the above mentioned professional websites. The only trick is to forget your previous judgments about a team’s winning force in the past and trust what the specialists have to say about it today based on statistical data.

Last, but not least, always bet on the championship you know best or have the highest amount of information about. Soccer betting online relies on knowing a bundle of facts about the games and odds of the teams playing, so it is best that you are well informed prior to placing your bet. However, if you resort to a professional betting website then they also offer extensive details and explain their predictions, so you do not need to make the research on your own. Some punters say they never bet on friendly games, because they are full of surprises, so stick to the major games from the major leagues to be surer.

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How to Manage National Team in Football Manager FM 2010

Football Manager is a series of football management simulation PC games developed by Sports Interactive (SIGames) and published by Sega. The latest version is Football Manager 2010 (FM 2010).

I have managed various national teams in Football Manager, you can manage one club and one national team concurrently in Football Manager. This is essentially 2 teams management. When I’m playing with Manchester United, I am offered to manage Brazil & England team. When I play in Spanish league as Xerez, I was offered manager position for Italy, Spain, and French. I usually don’t apply for this job. If you are winning many league cups as well as UEFA Champions League, you will be offered any of this national manager position instantly by the FA. The position usually will open after major cup such as World Cup or European Cup every 2-4 years. Most managers will get sack after poor performance in this major cup or the manager will resign by himself.

Managing national team is easy. I usually use generic tactic such as 4-4-2 most of the time or 4-1-2-1-2 variation for defence if needed. One thing to keep in mind is to keep winning when you are managing the national team.

Managing the Brazil team is a challenge, you will need to win almost all the time. Any consecutive draw will force the FA to boot you from the team. I was fired when I drew by playing with Argentina, Bolivia and Peru. If you can stay away from Brazil national team. The FA is just too unreasonable I think.

If possible, try to manage the national team which you have the league selected such as If you are managing English League team, try to manage England. Usually there is more young talent in your league that you play with the exception of Brazil.

I usually don’t select the national team player, I just ask a suggestion from my assistant manager to select the team. This option usually is available from time to time. If not, select the best team by using the game filter such as rating etc.

4-4-2 tactic

I mainly used a 4-4-2 formation with both center back/ defender arrow down, wingers has upward arrow, and 1 fast striker downward arrow. The center back usually have man marking and rarely close down position. One of midfielder is played as defensive midfielder with closing down. Other your back will be out of position whenever the other team counter attack your team. The passing is set to short or mix, wide formation and quick tempo. Offside and counter attack is on.

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